What if the US recast its border crisis as an opportunity to grow the economy and tax base in the face of declining or aging populations?
The One Problem
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 9.6 million open jobs at the end of June 2023, and 5.8 million people listed as unemployed. The rate of unemployment has been below four percent since January (and among the lowest in the last 50 years), indicating that there is an ongoing trend of unmet workforce needs across the US economy.
Essentially there is a sizable numerical mismatch between the quantity of new or vacant positions and the number of qualified and/or interested applicants.
Some of the challenges in filling these open jobs include factors such as the aging of the population, driven by the Baby Boomer bubble, or a lack of job appeal in certain sectors (e.g., manual labor).
Other hiring challenges reflect economic growth or shifts in supply chains and work output, such as:
- Post-Covid rebound of the economy
- The need to develop domestic capabilities in the supply chain that had once been relegated to foreign production, but have since been exposed as unreliable in the Covid era
- Burgeoning of projects related to recent funding of infrastructure renewal
- Development and growth of new technology and industries related to climate change and a gradual pivot away from fossil fuel based energy dependence
Having a large number of open jobs over time does have multiple adverse effects on the economy, including:
- Loss of overall productivity (GDP)
- Diminution of local, state and federal tax revenue
- Ripple effects across the national supply chain, broadly slowing availability of goods and services
- Loss of advantage in development of new technologies and production vis a vis foreign competition
The Other Problem
The phrase “crisis at the southern border” or some close variant is a major topic in the US at the moment.
According to the US Customs and Border Patrol there have been 1,254,022 “enforcement encounters” at the southern border from January through July of this year, which is just marginally less than last year during the same time span. (From January through July of 2022, 1,428,375 people tried to cross the southern border illegally.)
Any influx of migrants can lead to concern by current citizenry, which exacerbates an already fraught situation for those on both sides of the border.
US citizens may fear criminal influx, loss of employment opportunities, or that infrastructure is inadequate and will become overwhelmed.
We have more open jobs than unemployed people to fill them. At the same time, there are a number of migrants who wish to be employed
Policymakers or those in political roles, seeking to mitigate the concerns of their current base, may act in ways that are unnecessarily punitive or do not serve the country’s best interest.
An inhumane approach to patrolling the border can fuel xenophobia, political polarization, and demoralization for those on both sides of the border. But even if we turn away from those who may be impoverished or struggling with existential threat, injury, trauma, economic destitution or political persecution, there is still a price to pay for our country.
Tremendous resources and public funding are required to push back migrants from the border. Although this may be seen as a necessary cost of protecting our nation’s borders, our efforts to date have fallen far short in accomplishing that goal. To wit, the recidivism rate—defined as the percentage of individuals apprehended more than one time by the US Border Patrol within a fiscal year—nearly doubled from 2015 to 2021.
Consider too the money and resources spent on detaining or imprisoning aspiring workers. Money and resources that could be used for other programs to create a pathway to legal residency or patrolling the border for real threats such as those who may be on the US Terror Watch List (a statistically minute, but nonetheless concerning, issue).
The Opportunity
To review, we have a higher rate of open jobs than unemployed people within our border, and a number of people who wish to be employed on the outside of our national border.
What if we created a screening and placement process structured to assimilate people seeking relocation to the US that is tightly linked to fulfilling domestic workforce needs across all major sectors of the economy?
Applicants would complete a form online or in person prior to approaching the border. The initial intake would identify sector knowledge and experience, skill level, language capabilities, and basic matching criteria such as whether the candidate has family or a support network within the US.
The process could involve a partnership with an existing recruitment app such as ZipRecruiter or Indeed. These companies have built the infrastructure to house recruitment details from employers, accept applicant data from candidates, and match those candidates with employers’ open job needs.
For instance, there were nearly 13 million jobs in the overall manufacturing sector in June of this year, with about 567,000 open positions. Manufacturing jobs in general pay around $32 an hour on average, nearly double the highest minimum wage in the country. And yet, still those jobs are unfilled by the current workforce.
Over a million of those manufacturing jobs are specifically in the motor vehicle and parts manufacturing sector. In June 2023, there were 105,684 active job listings in the US automotive sector, according to data analytics and consulting company, Global Data. Automotive jobs pay on average around $27 an hour. Ford Motor Company alone lists over 2,300 available jobs on the recruitment site Indeed. Clearly there’s a need for workers in the automotive sector.
Another example can be found in hospitality. The American Hotels and Lodging Association (AHLA) reports that hotels have critical staffing needs, particularly in housekeeping. The number of applicants for these positions has not rebounded to the level that existed prior to the coronavirus pandemic, despite average wages for hospitality workers of $20 an hour—above minimum wage in any state.
The AHLA, which claims 32,000 members, could invite its participating member companies with available jobs to enter role requirements (cleaning and maintenance, kitchen, guest services, administrative, etc), location(s), and general pay ranges into an “open needs” application.
The app would match the employer’s needs against applicants who may have experience and/or be qualified to fill these jobs. If screening and interviewing produces a match, a process would be initiated whereby the applicant would interface with appropriate state and federal agencies to gain legal entry to our country, and establish a temporary place of residence—ideally to the location of the open job or an intermediate absorption center.
The applicant would be issued a temporary work visa for a probationary period of six months. If the arrangement succeeds, employer and employee would be put on a more stable work visa path. A case worker would be assigned to facilitate and track the process.
These are but two examples of employment sectors in the US, but the list of urgent staffing needs can be found in virtually every area. Including, for instance, in these sectors and among these companies, which employ a large swath of the American workforce:
- Hospitality: Marriott, Holiday Inn
- Automotive: Ford Motor Company, General Motors, Tesla
- Agriculture: Cargill, ADM
- Technology: Intel, Amazon, Dell
- Supply chain: Fedex, UPS, USPS
Working Alliance
We have the infrastructure and entities to make this work through a multi-partner alliance.
US government entities such as the US Customs and Border Patrol, the Department of Homeland Security, the State Department, and the Department of Labor could join forces with major companies or sector associations that represent a significant amount of current open jobs, such as those in hospitality, healthcare or manufacturing.
Who Could Object?
In spite of the intense polarization gripping the country, filling open jobs need not be a political wedge.
Recruitment challenges afflict everyone, regardless of ideology or political identity.
US labor unions may feel threatened, but they also could benefit from replacement of retiring dues-paying members.
Even for communities or businesses not beset by a lack of available employees, it is in everyone’s interest to enhance funding and resources toward growing the number of those paying into the tax base, as opposed to depleting tax revenue through detaining, imprisoning, and processing people to deport when they may simply return.
It is possible that applicants could become lost or disappear into the country due to employer dismissal or voluntary departure from employment. It is also possible that workers could face exploitation. For both these reasons, it would be helpful if a network of social workers could maintain contact and check ins with employers and new immigrants. Social workers would be assigned caseloads of newly-arrived migrants to track, from match through to placement, and then follow up at regular intervals.
A National Opportunity
The current crisis at the southern border is, in reality, a tremendous opportunity for the United States.
- We could remediate the significant and growing shortfall of workers in multiple sectors of the economy.
- We could relieve the enormous pressure on the Department of Homeland Security and the Customs and Border Patrol.
- More people would contribute to the tax base, and buy the products and services we produce—GDP would grow.
After all, every one of us non-native Americans traces our lineage back to an immigrant. Immigration is the heritage and strength of our country; it contributes to the resiliency of our society. We should reflect upon our heritage and see it as an opportunity to craft a better society toward a more successful American enterprise.
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Aaron Philip Nelson
